Our speaker this week was Brad Olsen Senior Economist at Infometrics. Brad needed little introduction as many of us see him very regularly on our screens providing commentary on the impacts to our economy of the issues of the day. In order to keep the report brief, I have focussed on just a few themes he touched upon.
Did he see Covid 19 as a threat early last year? On 27 January 2020 Brad did his first interview on Covid and suggested that like SARS it would have limited impact. However, he then mapped 168 WHO reports on SARS 2003/04 against what was known about the corona virus and realised his early assessment was well off the mark.
What did we learn about New Zealanders during our pandemic response? We learned that New Zealanders are very resourceful, just getting on with what needed to be done. For Brad it was setting up his home office using his ironing board and adopting Zoom as the new way to engage with clients and the public.
Have some sectors fared better than others? Parts of New Zealand that have had a strong international tourism focus are still being hit hard. Conversely domestic tourism is going well but activity patterns are different. Instead of flying to our holiday destinations, we are driving, mostly to the centres that are near to where we live resulting in new best performing tourism regions: Wairarapa; Northland; Coromandel, Whanganui, and Hanmer Springs.
The primary sector is doing relatively well with dairy back in top spot for export earnings – overtaking tourism as #1. The world needs to be fed and we can feed them and in response to the pandemic, the industry pivoted to supplying meat wine and seafood directly into people’s homes instead of through traditional channels.
What are the new trends resulting from the pandemic? The economic power is shifting to provincial centres, with families choosing to locate where they can find more affordable housing and potentially to achieve a better work-life balance. Similarly, businesses struggling to get staff are looking to relocate to these same centres.
Has Covid impacted some communities more than others? In an almost identical pattern to the GFC, the group who have fared comparatively worst are young people with jobs available for this group significantly down. He suggested that while the apprenticeship scheme is welcomed, consideration could be given to supporting education and training for other professions in demand such as nursing and teaching.
There was a lively Q&A following Brad’s talk. His ability to make his topic interesting and accessible was impressive.